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2008 Fall Flight Forecast
Not as good as last year

It is once again time for the USFWS (United State Fish and Wildlife Service) to report their annual spring breeding pair counts. These counts are done to help determine the status of waterfowl populations across North America. Airplanes, helicopters and people on the ground are used to count breeding ducks in both the traditional survey area and the eastern survey area. The traditional survey area is made up of land from the eastern Dakotas north through Ontario and west to Alaska and British Columbia. The eastern survey area is made up of those lands east of the Dakotas all the way to Nova Scotia. Last year both of these areas had wet weather coupled with very good nesting habitat to produce one of the top 10 population counts in the history of the survey (1955-2008). Dry weather, a late spring and the loss of nesting habitat however have decreased the overall duck population in 2008.

Total Ducks
This year there were approximately 37.3 million total ducks in the traditional survey are down from 41.2 million last year. This is a 9% decrease but it is still 11% above the long term average. In the eastern survey area there were approximately 2.7 million down from 3.0 million last year (-8%). This is still 4% above the average for this area however. Gadwall, canvasback, pintail and shoveler all showed significant decreases while teal, redhead and scaup all showed slight increases.

Mallard
Mallard numbers for this year were fair with 7.7 million pairs counted in the traditional survey area. This is down from 8.3 million last year (-7%) but still +3% over the long term average. The eastern survey area showed only a 1% decrease from last year but still up 11% over the long term. Mallards only represent about 15% of the ducks harvested in South Carolina with many of those coming from the eastern Dakotas, Minnesota and Michigan. The eastern Dakotas showed large (-24%) decreases while Michigan and Minnesota showed increases due to a wet spring.

Teal
Teal continue to be a bright spot when it comes to overall numbers. Green-winged teal numbers were up 3% from last year at 3.0 million and are now 57% above the long term average. Blue-winged teal experienced a 1% decrease from last year at 6.6 million but are still 45% above the long term. This bodes well for not only the early teal season but also the regular season as teal make up about 20% of the total harvest here.

Gadwall
Gadwall experienced a 19% decline in numbers from last year. They went from 3.3 million in 2007 to 2.7 million in 2008. They are still 56% above the long term and all areas in the survey continue to be above the long term except for northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba.

American Wigeon
This year 2.5 million wigeon were reported in the traditional survey area. This number is down 11% from last year and down 5% over the long term average. Here in the east however there were only 8,000 reported which is down 40% from last year and down 57% over the long term. The number of wigeon here in the east continues to fluctuate greatly from year to year. Southern Manitoba showed the biggest increase (40%) while the eastern Dakotas showed the biggest decrease (59%).

Northern Shoveler
Shoveler numbers are coming off a record high last year of 4.5 million. This year the survey showed 3.5 million shovelers in the traditional survey area. This number is 23% lower than last year but still 56% higher than the long term average. Northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba showed the biggest gains (32%) while southern Alberta showed a decrease (37%). Shovelers are not one the 10 most abundant species here in the east but hunters should have a good season.

Northern Pintail
Pintail numbers continue to decline. This was one of the 10 lowest population estimates since the survey was started. Only 2.6 million pintails were counted this year which is down from 3.3 million last year. This represents a 22% decrease and is 36% below the long term average. Southern Manitoba was one of only 3 areas to show an increase in numbers (97%) while both the western Dakotas and Southern Saskatchewan showed decreases of around 56%.

Redhead
Redheads continue to show improvement setting a new population record this year. Last years record estimate of 1.00 million was broken by this years estimate of 1.06 million. This is a 5% increase from last year and 66% above the long term. Southern Alberta showed the biggest increase (86%) while the western Dakotas showed the biggest decrease (66%).

Canvasback
Canvasback numbers took a big hit this year. After setting a record last year the population fell 44% this year to 489,000. This is 14% below the long term. For this reason there will be no canvasback season this year to allow the population to recover. Every survey area showed a decrease led by southern Manitoba (-60%) and the eastern Dakotas (-54%).

Scaup (greater and lesser combined)
After experiencing declines in populations over the past 5 years scaup numbers finally showed signs of improvement. There were an estimated 3.7 million scaup this year compared to 3.4 million last year. This is an 8% increase but it is still 27% below the long term average. Most of the areas showed improvement in numbers led by northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba (+50%) but there were also some areas that continue to show decline including the eastern Dakotas (-29%).

Wood Duck
Wood ducks are the number one duck harvested in South Carolina. Last year they made up 37% of the duck harvest in our state. This is down from an average of 45% over the past few years. Although there is not a survey system in place to estimate wood duck populations 2008 looks to be another good year. SCWA’s wood duck program is seeing good production from the boxes that they check. The USFWS has also agreed to allow an increase in the bag limit of wood ducks to 3. This is due to an increased effort to study hunting mortality and overall mortality by banding surveys implemented by the USFWS. South Carolina hunters can be proud to say that they have had a big hand in producing tens of thousands of wood ducks each year through nest box programs.

Black Duck
Black Ducks are not one of the ducks surveyed in the traditional survey area. They are however surveyed in the eastern survey area as they are the second most abundant duck on the east coast. This year black duck numbers were estimated at 496,000 which is down 13% from last year but still up 4% over the long term.

Ring-necked Ducks
Ring-necks are also not survey in the traditional survey area but they are the most popular duck here on the east coast. They are also the third most harvested duck in the state. This year 551,000 ring-necks were counted which is down from 664,000 last year. This is a 17% decrease but is still 4% above the long term. If water levels stay low it will be another tough year for diver hunters here is South Carolina.

Overall the season does not appear to be as good as last year but it should still be one of the better seasons on record. With the continued drought here in the south east duck hunting has become increasingly difficult. Those hunters who are persistent and do their scouting will have better success in these tougher times.

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